The math behind why some teams go for 2 when down 8 in the NFL

When the Carolina Panthers scored a fourth-quarter touchdown to cut Green Bay’s lead to eight points, coach Dave Canales opted to go for 2 instead of kicking an extra point in what has become a far more common decision even if it still bewilders some broadcasters and fans.The Panthers missed and lost by eight last Thursday so the decision proved moot in the end but it's sure to come up again.So here’s the explanation on why teams have made the switch in strategy.Since the extra point was moved back in 2015, teams have made 94.4% of extra points and 48% of 2-point tries. To do the math, there need to be some assumptions made starting with a team converting at league average rates and overtime being a 50-50 proposition.A team would have about a 45% chance of making the first 2-point try, kicking the extra point and winning in regulation with those numbers, with about a 27% chance of losing in regulation and 28% chance of forcing overtime. That makes for a 59% chance of winning in that sc